To date, there have already been five named storms this hurricane season. And, the first two of those storms – Arthur and Bertha – technically formed in May, before the “official start” of the season on June 1.
At first glance, this makes it seem like we’re in for a particularly brutal storm season this summer. But, that may not actually be the case. Let’s take a closer look at what has happened so far and what that could mean for the rest of this hurricane season.
What Can We Gather from Hurricane Activity So Far This Year?
Apart from this year, there have only been four other times, dating back to 1851, when at least two storms have intensified to be tropical storms before May 27th. While that could be an indicator that we’re in for a tumultuous season, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University tropical scientist, disagrees.
He says, “Historically, Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (as measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy) through June 30th has had very little relationship with the remainder of the season’s hurricane activity.”
It’s also important to note that while there has been a high amount of storm activity in a short amount of time, the severity of them has been fairly low. As The Weather Channel reports, “The large number of storms so far masks the fact these storms were all short-lived.” So far, we’ve been lucky that the formed storms have moved through quickly, without growing into more serious threats.
However, there’s still some concern for what the rest of the season may hold. Colorado State University predicts that this season has the conditions for a high level of storm activity. As of their latest report, released on July 7, 2020, they’re predicting 20 storms to form in the Atlantic and nine of those to develop into hurricanes. Of those nine, they’re anticipating that four will grow to at least Category 3 status.
Of course, only time will tell how accurate these predictions will be. The best thing you can do is keep your eye on the forecasts and do everything you can to prepare for a storm before it hits.
Keep checking back here as we share more information about this hurricane season as it becomes available.