According to reports published in early autumn, a weaking La Niña will add a lot of uncertainty to climate predictions for this fall.
Climate prediction is always a matter of probabilities, and there is always a fair share of uncertainty. But a big change like El Niño or La Niña bears certain kinds of effects with enough reliability that forecasters have more confidence in their predictions at those times.
If the ocean’s temperature rises a half degree above normal, it is a strong sign of El Niño. A half degree below normal suggests La Niña, and anything in between is neutral.
La Niña patterns tend to bring heavier rain and snow to the northern Rocky Mountain region and drought to the South. El Niño generally brings cool and wet weather to the South and warmer weather to the Northwest.
Without such a strong force like a La Niña acting on the climate system, there is a higher chance of more random and unpredictable events influenced by other variables.
Read more about the latest update on the challenges forecasters face with this year’s La Niña:
- USA Today says, Warm fall predicted, but ‘La Nada’ is a challenge to forecast
- Climate Central says, Is La Niña Here? Depends on Who You Ask
- KXAN in Texas says, La Niña Watch dropped; be ready for anything this winter