Predictions for Nonresidential Construction in 2020 and 2021


We understand that when construction activity is higher, your business thrives. We try to keep our finger on the pulse of what’s happening in the world of infrastructure and building so we can keep you updated about valuable information that affects your business.

Building Design + Construction recently wrote about the American Institute for Architects (AIA) Consensus Construction Forecast for nonresidential construction in 2020 and 2021; here’s an overview of the highlights you need to know.

Expected Growth

Although the market is generally entering a growth slowdown mode, economists from eight different industry organizations predict there were will be modest growth in spending for nonresidential buildings over the next two years. Approximately 1.5% growth is expected in 2020, then an estimated 0.9% growth in 2021.

Here’s a closer look at projected growth in 2020 by industry:

  • Public safety: 7.2%
  • Education: 3.9%
  • Healthcare: 3.4%
  • Office: 3.0%

Expected Decline

While the overall consensus is that there will not be a downturn in nonresidential construction activity, unfortunately, some industries are expected to reduce construction spending in 2020. These industries include:

  • Hotels
  • Religious facilities
  • Amusement/recreation
  • Retail

Cautious Optimism

While much is yet to be seen, AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker remains optimistic. He says, “The broader economy is expected to continue to see slower growth this year, but the number of potential trouble spots seems to be diminishing. Revenue trends at architecture firms saw an uptick in the fourth quarter last year, which suggests construction spending will continue to see growth in the coming quarters.”

For a more in-depth look at these predictions, read the full Building Design + Construction article.